Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Fall 2025 May Be the Best Time to Buy a Home

Peak homebuying season often gets all the attention, but the frenzy of summer isn't always the best time to make a move. While families with children may prefer relocating when school is out, buyers who wait until fall often discover unexpected advantages. Cooler competition, growing inventory, and more negotiable sellers can make autumn one of the most favorable times of year to buy a house.

In 2021 and 2022, the market was brutal for buyers. Limited listings and homeowners clinging to their low-rate mortgages fueled bidding wars that drove prices skyward. Sellers had the upper hand, and buyers were left with few options. That dynamic has begun to shift. Sellers are now facing the reality that it isn't 2022 anymore, and many have had to reduce asking prices or negotiate more openly. While buyers don't hold all the power, they are entering what some economists call a "balanced" market, where leverage is beginning to tilt in their favor. With the guidance of a skilled agent, today's buyers may find opportunities to negotiate better prices, request repairs, or enjoy greater flexibility with closing terms.

Part of this new landscape stems from a rebound in housing supply. The number of homes on the market has climbed to its highest level since May 2020. In July 2025, the National Association of Realtors reported 4.6 months' supply of homes available, signaling that buyers finally have more choices. This easing of inventory gridlock has had ripple effects. People are more willing to move, and once buyers see friends or family finding homes, they often gain the confidence to take the plunge themselves. Real estate agents describe this as a bandwagon effect, where momentum builds as more deals close and more listings appear.

Price trends also add to fall's appeal. While homes remain expensive — the median sales price in July stood at $422,400, up nearly 56 percent since 2020 — the pace of growth has cooled considerably. In July, home prices inched up only 0.2 percent year over year, and in many local markets prices are already falling. Buyers who shop in the fall can also benefit from seasonal price reductions as sellers cut asking prices on properties that sat unsold during the summer rush. Even moving costs can be lower in autumn compared with peak summer months.

The wild card for buyers is mortgage rates. Forecasts suggest modest declines by late 2025, with Fannie Mae projecting average rates near 6.5 percent and the Mortgage Bankers Association predicting 6.6 percent. While these figures remain high compared to the ultra-low rates of the past decade, even a fraction of a percentage point can make a meaningful difference in monthly payments. Experts caution, however, that buyers shouldn't try to time the market too precisely. If a home fits both your needs and your budget, that may be the best signal to act. Future rate drops could provide an opportunity to refinance, but waiting too long may mean facing renewed competition if rates fall and more buyers return.

Taken together, these factors create one of the most buyer-friendly markets since before the pandemic. With more homes for sale, slower price growth, and the potential for slightly lower borrowing costs ahead, fall presents a unique window for buyers ready to make a move. For those who sat out the summer, patience may prove to have been a smart strategy.

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What Falling Rates Mean for Buyers and Sellers

Mortgage rates have inched down to their lowest levels of 2025, signaling potential relief for weary homebuyers and sparking cautious optimism in the real estate market. According to the latest Freddie Mac data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.58% from 6.63% the previous week. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed mortgage, often favored by homeowners looking to refinance, fell more sharply to 5.71% from 6.63%. These are the lowest rates recorded since October of last year.

Although today's rates remain slightly above their historical average since 1991, many analysts believe they could decline further in the months ahead. The key driver? Shifts in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — a benchmark that plays a pivotal role in setting mortgage rates.

Why Mortgage Rates Are Trending Lower

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, with lenders adding a spread to account for the risks of lending, including inflation and broader market uncertainty. While the Federal Reserve has already cut its benchmark interest rate twice in the past year, Treasury yields stayed stubbornly elevated into early 2025, reflecting investor concerns about inflation and U.S. government debt.

Recently, however, inflation has cooled, and signs of a slowing economy have renewed investor confidence that additional Fed cuts are on the horizon. At the start of this week, the 10-year yield stood at 4.287% — down from above 4.5% just months ago. With the Fed hinting at another possible 25 basis-point cut in September, the likelihood of continued downward pressure on mortgage rates has grown stronger.

What Comes Next for Interest Rates

Looking forward, the Fed is expected to consider as many as six rate cuts through the end of 2026, though these moves will ultimately depend on economic performance. The central bank's dual mandate — keeping inflation under control while supporting maximum employment — means any surprises in the job market or price levels could alter the path.

If rates continue to fall, housing affordability could improve modestly, giving sidelined buyers a reason to re-enter the market. But the impact will likely be gradual, as home prices remain historically high.

The State of the Housing Market

Despite softer borrowing costs, the housing market remains in a holding pattern. Home prices have edged down from their pandemic-era peak: the median sales price fell to $410,800 in the second quarter of 2025, down 7.2% from the all-time high of $442,600 in late 2022, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data.

Still, many sellers are reluctant to accept lower offers. With fewer active buyers, homes are taking longer to sell, and some listings are being pulled from the market altogether. Redfin data shows that in June, home sales dipped 1.3% year-over-year, while new listings fell 3.4%.

The recent decline in mortgage rates marks a turning point after years of elevated borrowing costs. If rates continue trending lower, they could breathe life back into the housing market, enticing both first-time buyers and current homeowners considering a move. For now, buyers may find themselves with slightly more leverage, while sellers may need to temper expectations as the market adjusts to this new reality.

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Why New Homes Are Becoming More Affordable in Today’s Housing Market

Housing costs have surged more than 50 percent since the pandemic began, and mortgage rates remain close to 7 percent, keeping affordability a challenge for many buyers. Yet one surprising shift has emerged: the traditional price gap between new-construction homes and existing homes is narrowing. In several markets, new builds are not only more competitively priced but also offer better value per square foot, often paired with enticing incentives from builders.

For years, new-construction homes commanded a steep premium. Higher prices were driven by modern amenities, rising material and labor costs, and strong demand. But that dynamic is changing. According to Realtor.com, median listing prices for new homes dropped year over year in 30 of the nation's largest metro areas during the most recent quarter. The median listing price of a new home in the second quarter of 2025 was roughly $450,000, compared with $418,000 for an existing home. While the sticker price remains higher, buyers are finding more competitive deals when factoring in space and incentives.

The most notable declines have been concentrated in the South and West, where competition and softer demand have pressured builders to adjust. In markets like Little Rock, Arkansas; Austin, Texas; and Jacksonville, Florida, prices for new homes fell between 7 and 15 percent. Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, emphasized the importance of this trend, noting that affordable new construction can help ease the nation's housing shortage, which still hovers near 4 million homes.

In terms of value, new builds are often more cost-efficient per square foot. National averages show that new homes are listed at about $218 per square foot, compared with $226.56 for existing homes. Builders have also responded to affordability concerns by making homes smaller. A report from John Burns Research & Consulting found that nearly one-quarter of new homes in 2024 were downsized to reduce costs. Rather than shrinking individual rooms, many architects redesigned layouts to eliminate unnecessary hallways and maximize usable space.

Incentives have become another powerful tool for boosting sales. Builders are offering perks such as design upgrades and, most notably, mortgage-rate buydowns. These buydowns, in which builders cover the difference between market mortgage rates and discounted rates offered to buyers, have proven especially popular. A recent National Association of Home Builders survey found that 61 percent of builders are using such incentives. Buydowns can lower monthly payments significantly, making homeownership more attainable despite elevated interest rates.

While these offers provide short-term relief, experts warn that temporary buydowns may carry risks. If rates remain high or reset upward, buyers could face higher payments in the future. Even so, incentives have played a major role in supporting new-home sales at a time when affordability challenges continue to weigh on the market.

Overall, while housing remains expensive, the evolving dynamics of new construction — including lower prices in certain regions, smaller but more efficient designs, and widespread builder incentives — are creating fresh opportunities for buyers. For those willing to consider new builds, the gap between affordability and aspiration may be narrower than it has been in years.

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Should You Buy a Second Home in Retirement?

Falling mortgage rates and more flexible sellers are giving retirees new opportunities to explore the dream of owning a second home. According to a recent Redfin report, interest rates have dipped to their lowest levels in nearly a year, and with more sellers willing to negotiate on price, the timing looks better than it has in a while.

But before diving into a second purchase, retirees should weigh the financial implications, lifestyle fit, and long-term benefits carefully. Here's a breakdown of what to consider — along with the pros and cons of adding a second property to your retirement years.

Key Steps to Buying a Second Home in Retirement

1. Protect your retirement savings Avoid tapping into 401(k) or IRA funds to cover the purchase. Early withdrawals (before age 59½) trigger penalties and taxes, and even later withdrawals can push you into a higher tax bracket.

2. Define the purpose of the home Decide if it will be a vacation getaway, a future primary residence, or an investment property. Many buyers in their 50s and 60s purchase second homes primarily for personal use, but having a clear purpose upfront prevents regret later.

3. Match the home to your lifestyle Think beyond today's wants — consider accessibility features like single-level layouts, proximity to healthcare, and amenities you'll need as you age.

4. Explore your financing options Paying in cash can simplify the process and preserve retirement income for other needs. If you plan to finance, know that second-home mortgage rates are typically 0.5% higher than primary residence loans, averaging 6%–7% in 2025.

5. Research local markets Since demand for second homes has cooled, more listings are seeing price cuts — 23% in January 2025 alone. Investigate trends and, if you plan to rent the home, study the potential for rental income.

6. Budget for hidden and ongoing costs Beyond the purchase price, plan for maintenance, insurance, utilities, and taxes. Homes in high-risk areas, such as coastal Florida, often carry especially high insurance premiums.

Benefits of Owning a Second Home

  • A personal retreat: A place dedicated to your own relaxation, vacations, or seasonal living.
  • Financial leverage: Retirees with strong equity in their primary residence sometimes buy their second home outright, often with cash.
  • Peace of mind: Many buyers simply want a home that feels like theirs, free from work or family obligations.
  • Long-term appreciation: Homes historically rise in value — NAR data shows average annual appreciation of 6% to 7% over the past decade.
  • Tax advantages: Renting for more than 14 days per year can unlock deductions for expenses, and relocating your permanent residence to a lower-tax state can cut retirement costs.

Risks and Challenges

  • Ongoing expenses: Maintenance, property management, and unexpected repairs add up.
  • Reduced liquidity: Retirees often live on fixed incomes; tying up funds in real estate can reduce financial flexibility, especially in emergencies.
  • Opportunity costs: Investing $500,000 in an S&P 500 index fund could yield nearly $2 million in 20 years, compared with roughly $1.3 million from a home appreciating at 5% annually.
  • Time and effort: Managing a second home — especially one located far away — can become overwhelming without help.

A second home in retirement can be a wise investment, a source of rental income, or simply a peaceful escape. But it can also become a costly burden if purchased without careful planning.

As real estate investor Jacob Naig notes, the success of the decision depends on clarity of purpose: "Buying a second home can be both a sound investment for retirees or an unexpected headache, depending on how the decision was made and for whom it was made."

Before moving forward, evaluate your financial security, your long-term retirement goals, and your tolerance for risk. Done thoughtfully, a second home can enhance your golden years — not complicate them.

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Monday, August 18, 2025

Mortgage Rates Tick Higher, But Homebuyers Keep Buying

Mortgage rates edged up again last week, but demand for home loans has shown surprising resilience. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.75%, up from 6.67% two weeks earlier, while the average contract rate for mortgages with conforming loan balances climbed slightly to 6.84%. These are the highest levels seen in a month, yet mortgage applications barely slowed.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index, total application volume actually increased 0.8% from the previous week. Purchase applications were especially strong, rising 3% week over week and running 22% higher than the same time last year. Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, noted that conventional purchase loans are driving the growth and continue to outpace 2024 levels.

Not all loan activity shared the momentum. Refinancing applications fell by 3% last week, as higher rates continue to deter most homeowners from swapping out their existing mortgages. The refinance share of total activity slipped to 39.6%, down from 41.1% a week earlier. The average purchase loan size also dropped to $426,700 — its lowest since January — suggesting some buyers may be adjusting expectations in response to elevated borrowing costs.

So why are buyers still active despite mortgage rates nearing 7%? One explanation is rising inventory. Over the past two years, about 500,000 more sellers have entered the market, according to Redfin. For the first time since records began in 2013, supply has climbed sharply, with sellers now outnumbering buyers by three to one. For many, the availability of more homes — combined with price reductions in certain markets — has outweighed the drag of higher borrowing costs.

The recent uptick in mortgage rates can be traced to economic uncertainty and renewed inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months ending June 2025, a modest but meaningful increase that complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates later this year. Bond markets have reacted swiftly, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing toward 4.5% after briefly dipping below 4% in April. Since mortgage rates generally move in line with Treasury yields, higher yields have kept mortgage borrowing costs elevated.

Government fiscal policy is also playing a role. The Congressional Budget Office projects that President Donald Trump's recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" will add roughly $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Larger deficits require greater Treasury issuance, increasing bond supply and pushing yields higher. At the same time, concerns about inflation from new spending reduce investor demand for bonds, further pressuring yields upward.

For now, the housing market is caught between competing forces. Rising rates remain a headwind, but an influx of sellers and gradually improving inventory are giving buyers more opportunities than they have had in years. With mortgage rates tethered to broader inflation and fiscal dynamics, the path ahead remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that even in a higher-rate environment, many buyers remain determined to move forward.

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Lower Mortgage Rates Offer Buyers a Window of Opportunity

For the past several years, the housing affordability crisis has kept many would-be buyers on the sidelines. High mortgage rates, rising home prices, and steep down payment expectations have created major barriers for first-time buyers, particularly those without existing equity to leverage. While the market has yet to return to its pre-pandemic pace, recent shifts suggest that conditions are beginning to tilt in favor of buyers.

One of the most encouraging signs is the steady decline in mortgage rates. Redfin recently reported that the average daily mortgage rate dropped to 6.57% on August 4, the lowest level in nearly a year. That change may not sound dramatic, but compared with May's peak of 7.08%, it translates to a significant difference in purchasing power. Buyers working with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $458,750 home instead of the $439,000 home they would have been limited to just a few months ago.

The ripple effect of even a half-point dip in rates is substantial. On a median-priced home, today's lower rate shaves more than $100 off the average monthly payment, making ownership more attainable for many families. With housing inventory rising and more sellers willing to negotiate on price, buyers have stronger leverage than they have had in years. In May, sellers outnumbered buyers by 500,000, creating a surplus that is now fueling more competitive conditions.

Still, experts caution that this window may not remain open for long. Mortgage rates are closely tied to broader economic indicators, and ongoing volatility makes it difficult to predict how long today's more favorable rates will last. The weak July jobs report has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which could push mortgage rates even lower in the short term. Yet the market has proven unpredictable, and swings in economic data could quickly change the outlook.

Housing affordability remains one of the biggest challenges, especially for younger generations. Surveys show that most Millennial and Gen Z buyers would be motivated to return to the market if rates fall below 6%. While affordability is still a concern with rates in the mid-6% range, the current trend provides meaningful relief and may encourage hesitant buyers to act.

Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather advises buyers not to wait too long. "This dip in mortgage rates gives house hunters a window of opportunity to buy before summer ends," she explained. "While housing costs are still fairly high, the recent decline in rates boosts purchasing power and improves overall homebuying conditions. Combined with the surplus of homes for sale on the market, serious buyers may want to jump in sooner rather than later."

The road to housing affordability remains complicated, but today's combination of lower rates and rising inventory may provide one of the best openings buyers have seen in years. For those ready to make a move, the moment to act could be now.

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How Homeowners Are Rethinking Their Outdoor Spaces

Rising costs and a renewed focus on functionality are reshaping how homeowners design and use their outdoor spaces. More than ever, people want their yards to serve multiple purposes, from relaxation and dining to gardening and recreation. At the same time, intentional design and sustainability are guiding choices, as families look to maximize every square foot of their property while staying mindful of long-term value.

Spending more time outdoors remains a priority, and the trend of creating distinct "rooms" has become a defining feature of modern landscaping. Patios double as dining areas, shaded seating zones become living rooms, and garden beds serve both aesthetic and practical purposes. While the traditional rule of thumb suggested investing 10% of a home's value in outdoor improvements, designers say today's budgets are higher—averaging closer to 15% to 25% depending on the market. Part of that increase comes from rising labor and material costs, but it also reflects homeowners' willingness to spend more on features that are sustainable and designed to last.

One of the clearest areas of investment is water features. Pools remain in demand, though designs are evolving. Many homeowners are trading older vinyl-lined pools for more durable gunite models, updating tilework, or opting for sleek rectangular shapes that have regained popularity. Compact pools and "spools" are also attractive for smaller lots, while extras like water jets, LED lighting, and integrated spas add luxury. Even in urban spaces, simple recirculating fountains are being used to bring the calming effect of water into outdoor living.

Landscaping is also shifting to reflect ecological concerns. Designers increasingly encourage native plants that attract pollinators such as bees, butterflies, and birds. Using species that are adapted to local soil and climate creates healthier, lower-maintenance gardens while reducing water use. In areas where water conservation is especially important, xeriscaping and drought-tolerant grasses are becoming the norm. Some homeowners are even leaning toward wilder, more natural landscapes filled with ornamental grasses, seed-bearing perennials, and boulders to create year-round visual interest. Others are turning to edible gardens, with blueberries, figs, strawberries, and grapes thriving even in rooftop spaces.

Seasonal color remains a priority as well, and landscape architects are designing with year-round interest in mind. Spring blossoms like cherry trees and tulips transition to summer hydrangeas and roses, while vibrant fall foliage and winter ornamental grasses ensure outdoor spaces are never without texture or beauty. This focus on variety gives homeowners spaces that evolve and remain engaging throughout the year.

Outdoor kitchens are another area where intentional design makes a difference. While some homeowners still want fully equipped setups with grills, smokers, pizza ovens, and bars, others prefer smaller, more modest kitchens with just the essentials. In both cases, outdoor cooking spaces are viewed as quality-of-life upgrades, particularly for families who continue to work from home and want to maximize their living environment. Seating areas and shaded structures often accompany these kitchens, creating natural hubs for entertaining.

Relaxation spaces round out the vision for many homeowners. Comfortable seating, shade structures, and features like fire pits or outdoor art help create cozy gathering areas. Some homeowners are even adding televisions, sound systems, and fans to make their outdoor living as functional as their indoor spaces. For those with larger properties, recreational amenities such as pickleball courts, putting greens, and tennis courts are becoming increasingly common.

Sustainability remains an underlying theme across all these upgrades. Homeowners are opting for permeable hardscapes like gravel, bluestone, and limestone to reduce runoff and allow water to recharge the soil. Artificial turf is chosen carefully, with many seeking non-toxic, pet-safe options. Between pavers, creeping perennials like sedum provide greenery while tolerating foot traffic. Irrigation systems are becoming smarter as well, with controls that track temperature and time of day to conserve water, while proper drainage planning prevents long-term erosion or flooding.

Together, these choices reflect a broader shift in how homeowners approach their outdoor environments. Instead of adding features piecemeal, people are prioritizing intentional design that balances beauty, sustainability, and function. Whether through a modest edible garden, a family-friendly pool, or a full outdoor kitchen, today's outdoor spaces are being built not only for enjoyment but also for resilience and long-term value.

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