Mortgage rates edged up again last week, but demand for home loans has shown surprising resilience. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.75%, up from 6.67% two weeks earlier, while the average contract rate for mortgages with conforming loan balances climbed slightly to 6.84%. These are the highest levels seen in a month, yet mortgage applications barely slowed.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index, total application volume actually increased 0.8% from the previous week. Purchase applications were especially strong, rising 3% week over week and running 22% higher than the same time last year. Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, noted that conventional purchase loans are driving the growth and continue to outpace 2024 levels.
Not all loan activity shared the momentum. Refinancing applications fell by 3% last week, as higher rates continue to deter most homeowners from swapping out their existing mortgages. The refinance share of total activity slipped to 39.6%, down from 41.1% a week earlier. The average purchase loan size also dropped to $426,700 — its lowest since January — suggesting some buyers may be adjusting expectations in response to elevated borrowing costs.
So why are buyers still active despite mortgage rates nearing 7%? One explanation is rising inventory. Over the past two years, about 500,000 more sellers have entered the market, according to Redfin. For the first time since records began in 2013, supply has climbed sharply, with sellers now outnumbering buyers by three to one. For many, the availability of more homes — combined with price reductions in certain markets — has outweighed the drag of higher borrowing costs.
The recent uptick in mortgage rates can be traced to economic uncertainty and renewed inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months ending June 2025, a modest but meaningful increase that complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates later this year. Bond markets have reacted swiftly, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing toward 4.5% after briefly dipping below 4% in April. Since mortgage rates generally move in line with Treasury yields, higher yields have kept mortgage borrowing costs elevated.
Government fiscal policy is also playing a role. The Congressional Budget Office projects that President Donald Trump's recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" will add roughly $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Larger deficits require greater Treasury issuance, increasing bond supply and pushing yields higher. At the same time, concerns about inflation from new spending reduce investor demand for bonds, further pressuring yields upward.
For now, the housing market is caught between competing forces. Rising rates remain a headwind, but an influx of sellers and gradually improving inventory are giving buyers more opportunities than they have had in years. With mortgage rates tethered to broader inflation and fiscal dynamics, the path ahead remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that even in a higher-rate environment, many buyers remain determined to move forward.
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