June 2023 Sees a Positive Move When It Comes to Builder Confidence

 For the first time in the past year or so, builder confidence has moved into the positive range. The confidence booster is due to the heavy buyer demand, low home inventory and the increase in productivity in the supply chain. The National Association of Home Builders had a lot of great data to share about the housing market.

As of June 2023, builders’ confidence in newly-built single-family homes rose to fifty-five points. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) this is the sixth straight month that there has been an increase in builder confidence.

“Builders are feeling cautiously optimistic about market conditions given low levels of existing home inventory and ongoing gradual improvements for supply chains,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “However, access for builder and developer loans has become more difficult to obtain over the last year, which will ultimately result in lower lot supplies as the industry tries to expand off cycle lows.”

“A bottom is forming for single-family home building as builder sentiment continues to gradually rise from the beginning of the year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “This month marks the first time in a year that both the current and future sales components of the HMI have exceeded 60, as some buyers adjust to a new normal in terms of interest rates. The Federal Reserve nearing the end of its tightening cycle is also good news for future market conditions in terms of mortgage rates and the cost of financing for builder and developer loans.”

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A Strong February for Single-Family Starts

Single-family starts grew in numbers this February according to estimates from the Housing and Urban Development and Commerce Departments. The great start stems from builder confidence and low mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve rolled out an emergency rate cut making rates hit a historic low. Currently, the benchmark interest rate range is 1% to 1.25%. Freddi Mac reports an average 3.45% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and 2.95% average for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage. What does this mean for

the housing market? Potential buyers who are just on the verge of purchasing a new home will now have a great incentive to jump on the opportunity.

The Single-Family Housing Starts and Builder Confidence is shown in a graph depicting the 3-month moving average. According to the graph, the 3-month average for single-family construction is higher than post-recession high. The single-family starts showed an increase of 6.7% making it a 1,072,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace in February.

Builder confidence is going strong with construction at a fast pace due to warmer weather. There were 539,000 single-family homes under construction reported in the month of February 2020. The numbers look as though they do not reflect a rise, however, they are making up for the declines seen in early 2019. Other sectors are also seeing an increase. Currently, there are 683,000 apartments under construction which is 12% up from this time last year. This also marks a post-Great Recession high for apartment construction.

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Builder Confidence High for the Month of October

A jointly sponsored survey from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo to a selection of builders in the United States rates builder confidence in three different areas: current sales conditions, prospective buyers, and expectations for future sales. The results of this survey are published each month in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Any rating by builders that is higher than 50 is considered a positive sign. During October, 2017, the builder confidence index rose to a total of 68 for all three categories, which is the highest level it has

been since May of this year.  March – June are considered some of the best months for real estate, so to have this high of a score during October from builders is a very positive sign for the real estate industry as a whole.

“This month’s report shows that home builders are rebounding from the initial shock of the hurricanes,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. “However, builders need to be mindful of long-term repercussions from the storms, such as intensified material price increases and labor shortages.”

It is also interesting to note that builder confidence is so high when the hurricanes have eaten up a lot of the construction labor available to builders with flood restoration and home repair.  Some construction companies have one year and year and a half waiting lists for hurricane-related home repairs. In fact, the typical number of new home permits issued in Houston in a year has been surpassed by the number of permits requested for home repairs.

The price of lumber is also up 21% and is expected to continue to rise. However, builders are also seeing a surge in demand for new homes after the hurricanes, so this has probably helped with builder confidence levels during this month.

The exact numbers of the three survey factors are as follows: current sales conditions rose five points to 75. Sales expectations over the next six months also rose five points to 78. The component measuring buyer traffic rose just one point to 48 and is the only measure in negative territory.

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