Saturday, February 22, 2025

The State of the New Home Market & Trends and Insights from 2024

As 2025 begins, reflecting on the changes in the new home market over the past year provides valuable insight into where the housing industry is headed. In 2024, the new construction sector remained strong, with over a million new single-family homes completed, continuing the upward trend from 2023. While mortgage rates remained a challenge for many buyers, homebuilders worked to make new construction more accessible by offering smaller, more affordable homes and financial incentives like mortgage rate buydowns.

Growth in New Construction

In 2024, 1,020,600 newly built single-family homes were completed, marking an increase from the previous year. This growth reflects a continued effort to address the housing supply gap that has persisted since the Great Recession. Despite affordability concerns, builders adapted by offering competitively priced homes, bringing the median listing price for new construction down slightly to $449,967 in the fourth quarter, a 0.7% decrease year over year.

Notably, the price gap between new and existing homes has continued to shrink. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the new construction premium—the percentage difference between the price of a new home and an existing one—dropped to 13.7%, the lowest recorded for this period since 2020. More builders are focusing on cost-conscious buyers by constructing smaller homes that align more closely with existing-home prices.

Regional Differences in New Construction

New construction trends varied significantly by region. The South emerged as the most buyer-friendly market, with new homes making up 23% of listings and carrying the lowest price premium at 8.9%. The West followed closely, offering a low 5.8% premium on new builds, though new homes made up a smaller share of the market at 14.4%.

The Northeast and Midwest, on the other hand, had significantly higher new construction premiums at 76.2% and 64.8%, respectively. This stark difference is influenced by the age of existing homes in these regions. The average home on the market in the South and West is around 40 years old, whereas in the Midwest and Northeast, the average home is 60 to 69 years old. With older housing stock, newly built homes in these regions command a much higher price, contributing to the larger premium.

The Role of Mortgage Rate Buydowns

With mortgage rates fluctuating around the 7% mark, affordability remained a major hurdle for homebuyers in 2024. To help ease the burden, homebuilders increasingly turned to mortgage rate buydowns, a financial incentive that temporarily or permanently lowers a buyer's interest rate in exchange for an upfront payment.

Newly built homes were far more likely to offer these buydowns than existing homes. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 4.6% of new construction listings featured mortgage rate buydowns, compared to just 1.2% of existing home listings. Builders have greater flexibility to offer financial incentives like buydowns, making new homes a more attractive option for buyers looking to reduce their monthly mortgage payments.

Interestingly, builders tended to offer buydowns on more affordable properties, further expanding homeownership opportunities. The median listing price of a new home with a buydown was $457,938, compared to $439,953 for those without. In contrast, existing homes offering buydowns were generally larger and more expensive, with a median price of $467,600 compared to $390,967 for those without.

Looking Ahead to 2025

With new construction continuing to gain market share and mortgage rate buydowns proving to be a valuable tool in making homeownership more affordable, 2025 may see further shifts in the housing landscape. Builders will likely continue adjusting to market conditions by offering smaller homes, financial incentives, and flexible financing options to attract buyers.

As mortgage rates remain a key factor in affordability, the industry will be watching closely to see if rates begin to stabilize or decline. If rates remain elevated, the popularity of mortgage rate buydowns and other financial incentives could grow even further, shaping how buyers navigate the new construction market in the coming year.

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Essential Features to Consider When Building Your Custom Home

Building a custom home is an exciting opportunity to create a space that perfectly suits your lifestyle and future needs. While major design elements like kitchen layout and master bedroom placement are essential, the finer details can significantly impact your home's functionality, efficiency, and comfort. These small but thoughtful features not only enhance daily living but also add long-term value to your home.

Smart Kitchen Design for Convenience and Efficiency

The kitchen is often the heart of the home, and incorporating smart design elements can make it more functional and enjoyable. A grocery door from the garage to the pantry simplifies unloading groceries, especially for bulk shoppers. Some homeowners are even adding secure delivery alcoves for food deliveries, preventing package theft and keeping perishables safe.

A workstation sink with built-in accessories like cutting boards, drying racks, and strainers streamlines meal prep. Hidden outlets placed under cabinets maintain a clean backsplash while providing easy access to power. Customized drawers under sinks and stoves maximize storage, while trash and recycling chutes leading to outdoor bins keep waste management effortless.

For those who entertain often, double kitchen islands offer separate prep and serving areas. A prep kitchen or butler's pantry allows for discreet food preparation, keeping the main kitchen clean when hosting guests.

Functional and Organized Mudrooms

A well-designed mudroom keeps the home clean and organized. Custom cubbies help store shoes, coats, and backpacks, while a dog wash station makes cleaning pets easier after outdoor play. Pet-friendly features such as built-in kennels and tiled floors add durability and convenience.

Laundry Room Placement for Accessibility

No one enjoys lugging laundry up and down stairs, which is why second-floor or en suite laundry rooms are becoming increasingly popular. Some homeowners even opt for multiple laundry stations, such as one in the master suite and another near secondary bedrooms, making laundry day more efficient.

Outdoor Living Enhancements

Incorporating outdoor outlets and media connections makes it easy to install lighting, holiday decorations, and power tools. Built-in speakers inside and outside the home allow for seamless music and entertainment.

A smart thermostat helps manage energy use by adjusting temperatures when the house is empty, reducing utility costs while maintaining comfort.

Accessibility and Future-Proofing Your Home

Incorporating universal design features ensures your home remains functional at any stage of life. Wider doorways and step-free entryways make movement easier, while curbless showers and reinforced bathroom walls allow for the future installation of grab bars if needed. A main-floor bedroom and bathroom can serve as a primary suite later in life or accommodate guests with mobility challenges.

Sustainable and Energy-Efficient Upgrades

Sustainable home features are becoming a priority for many homeowners. Preparing the roof for solar panel installation and ensuring your garage is equipped for an electric vehicle charging station future-proofs your home for evolving technology. Geothermal heating and cooling systems provide long-term energy savings and increased efficiency.

Customizing Your Dream Home

A well-designed home balances comfort, convenience, and future-proofing. By incorporating thoughtful features such as hidden storage, smart technology, and sustainable elements, you can create a home that enhances your lifestyle and adapts to future needs. Whether building for luxury, functionality, or efficiency, these must-have features will ensure your home remains a joy to live in for years to come.

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Saturday, January 18, 2025

Single-Family Home Construction Rises Amid Shifting Market Conditions

Single-family homes have long been a staple of the American real estate market, offering privacy, stability, and a sense of independence for homeowners. In September 2024, new home construction saw a significant increase, particularly in the Northeast, as lower mortgage rates made purchasing and building homes more accessible. This surge comes at a time when multifamily housing construction has been slowing, signaling a shift in market dynamics.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, single-family home construction reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,027,000 units in September, marking a 5.5% increase compared to the previous year. The Northeast led the way with a staggering 77.4% annual increase in new construction, reflecting strong demand in the region. The primary factor driving this uptick was a dip in mortgage rates, which fell to an average of 6.18% in September, prompting more buyers and builders to move forward with new projects.

Despite this positive momentum, experts caution that market conditions remain volatile. Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com, pointed out that seasonal adjustments could make the numbers appear more dramatic than they actually are, particularly in regions where weather plays a significant role in construction patterns. Additionally, the downward trend in mortgage rates did not last long. By mid-October, rates had begun climbing again, reaching 6.44%, a shift that could dampen new home construction in the months ahead.

Higher mortgage rates typically discourage potential buyers, as borrowing costs increase, making homeownership less affordable. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders, noted that the recent rate increases could slow growth, even after the strong performance seen in September. The balance between interest rates and buyer demand will be crucial in determining whether the momentum in single-family home construction continues or starts to decline.

Regional trends highlight the complexity of the current housing market. While the Northeast experienced a notable rise in single-family home starts, the West saw a slight decline of 0.9%. Varying economic conditions, local regulations, and affordability challenges all contribute to these regional differences. Meanwhile, the slowdown in multifamily housing construction suggests that builders may be shifting their focus toward single-family homes, reflecting changing consumer preferences. However, this trend could have implications for housing affordability, as fewer multifamily units mean fewer options for renters and first-time homebuyers.

Affordability remains a pressing issue despite increased construction activity. Rising costs of materials, labor shortages, and high demand continue to push home prices upward. Experts argue that a substantial boost in home construction is needed to ease the affordability crisis, but this remains a challenge given current economic uncertainties.

Housing affordability has also become a topic of national discussion ahead of the November presidential election. Candidates have proposed measures such as easing building regulations and offering tax incentives to developers to encourage construction. While these policies may provide some relief, the impact of regulatory changes will largely depend on local governments and land-use decisions.

Single-family homes remain a vital part of the real estate market, with recent trends indicating strong demand and increased construction activity in key regions. However, rising mortgage rates and affordability concerns present significant challenges moving forward. For buyers, builders, and policymakers alike, understanding these shifting dynamics will be essential in navigating the evolving housing market.

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New Home Sales Rebound in November, But Rising Mortgage Rates Pose Challenges for 2025

New home sales in the United States saw a strong rebound in November, recovering from hurricane-related disruptions in the previous month. According to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, sales of new single-family homes rose 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000 units. This increase followed an upward revision of October's sales pace to 627,000 units, compared to the previously reported 610,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to reach 660,000 units, and the latest data slightly exceeded those projections. New home sales, which account for about 15% of overall U.S. housing transactions, tend to fluctuate from month to month, making short-term trends difficult to predict. Despite the volatility, sales were up 8.7% compared to the same time last year, signaling some strength in the market.

However, rising mortgage rates continue to be a concern for both buyers and builders. Data from Freddie Mac showed that the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.72% last week, reversing a previous decline to 6.60%. Elevated borrowing costs have been a major hurdle for prospective homebuyers, limiting affordability and slowing the pace of home purchases.

The Federal Reserve recently lowered its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, the central bank signaled that it would proceed cautiously with further rate reductions in 2025, adjusting its projections to include only two expected cuts instead of the four that had been anticipated in September. This more conservative approach reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability.

Adding to the uncertainty is the potential impact of policies under President-elect Donald Trump's administration. Economists warn that proposed tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts, and immigration policies could contribute to inflationary pressures, making the Federal Reserve even more hesitant to lower interest rates aggressively. If inflation remains high, mortgage rates could stay elevated, further restraining home sales in the coming year.

While November's rebound is a positive development, the housing market faces ongoing challenges. The combination of high borrowing costs, economic policy uncertainty, and cautious central bank measures could weigh on new home sales in 2025. Builders and buyers alike will be watching closely to see how these factors unfold in the months ahead.

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Homebuilders See Brighter Days Ahead Despite Mortgage Rate Pressures

While high costs and mortgage rates continue to dampen new home sales, homebuilders are expressing growing optimism about the market's future.

According to the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) sentiment index, released Tuesday, builder confidence in the next six months has reached its highest level since April 2022.

NAHB executives attribute this optimism to expectations of regulatory relief following the upcoming presidential election. "While builders are expressing concerns that high interest rates, elevated construction costs, and a lack of buildable lots continue to act as headwinds, they are also anticipating future regulatory relief in the aftermath of the election," said NAHB chairman Carl Harris in a prepared statement.

Challenges Persist Amid High Mortgage Rates

Despite their optimism, builders still face significant challenges in the current housing market. High mortgage rates have discouraged buyers, slowing both sales and new home construction in recent years.

Inflation has remained persistent, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates longer than initially expected. While the Fed made a modest rate cut this fall, borrowing costs remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

The federal funds rate, which influences mortgage rates, has been at its highest level in two decades as part of the Fed's strategy to curb inflation. This means home loan rates are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future. "Mortgage rates are likely to stay above 6% in the year ahead," said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz in a statement.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate last week was 6.6%, far above the 2%-3% rates seen during the pandemic or the 4%-5% levels typical before 2020.

Looking Ahead: A Market Poised for Change?

While the current housing market remains challenging, builders are banking on regulatory changes that could provide relief. If policies shift to ease regulations and reduce costs, homebuilders expect increased activity in the months ahead.

For now, buyers and builders alike are keeping a close eye on mortgage rates, inflation trends, and potential economic policy changes that could shape the housing market in 2025.

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When to Move Despite Higher Mortgage Rates

Today's real estate market has many homeowners feeling stuck. With 30-year mortgage rates currently averaging about 7%, homeowners who secured rates closer to 3% during the pandemic are hesitant to sell their homes. This reluctance to lose their low mortgage rates has created an unusual housing market.

Life's major decisions rarely align with ideal market conditions, however. While giving up a low rate might seem unthinkable, mortgage professionals say there are several scenarios in which trading that rate for a new home can be smart.

"There are plenty of good reasons to give up your lower mortgage rate to buy a new home—even if you're among the majority of Americans holding a rate below 5%," says Debbie Calixto, loanDepot's sales manager.

Understanding these scenarios can help you decide whether to hold onto your low home loan rate or move forward with a new home purchase.

Life changes often spark the need for a new home. For example, Calixto points out that growing families might need extra bedrooms or bigger yards. Others might want better schools or shorter commutes. These quality-of-life improvements can make the switch to a higher rate worthwhile. Chris Heller, president of Movoto.com, recently worked with a family who traded their 2.9% rate for a home in a top school district. While the higher rate stretched their budget initially, the long-term benefits were invaluable. "Over time, the property's appreciation offset the higher costs, and their children thrived academically," Heller explains. The family plans to refinance when rates drop.

Marriage, divorce, or health issues might also call for a move. These transitions often require quick decisions that can't wait for perfect market conditions. In these circumstances, the right move gives emotional and practical benefits that outweigh the cost of a higher mortgage rate.

Empty nesters often find that a smaller home's lower maintenance and energy costs offset the increase in monthly payments. These savings, plus the proceeds from selling a larger home, can improve overall financial flexibility. Heller recalls working with a retired couple who traded their suburban home for a more efficient condo. "[They prioritized] convenience over their old low rate," Heller says, highlighting how lifestyle benefits can outweigh rate considerations.

Physical needs also drive downsizing decisions. As you get older, you may find multi-story homes become impractical. Some of Calixto's clients choose single-story homes with aging-in-place features, even if it means taking on a higher rate. These accessible designs help them maintain their independence while preparing for future needs.

Many builders offer attractive perks such as home upgrades, closing cost credits, and temporary rate buydowns to make relocations viable in a high-rate environment. "31% to 33% of homebuilders have been cutting prices every month since July 2024, with reductions of 5% to 6%," says Jeff Taylor, a board member of the Mortgage Bankers Association and managing director at Mphasis Digital Risk. Even more compelling, about 60% of builders now offer some form of buyer incentive.

A promising promotion or dream job might take you to a new city where you can no longer hold onto your old mortgage rate. One of Heller's clients faced this exact situation. They traded a 2.75% rate for one at 6% to accept an out-of-state promotion. "The higher salary and long-term career benefits made the move a sound choice," he says. The increased income more than covered the higher monthly payments.

At times, keeping your low rate makes more sense. For instance, Calixto once worked with a family who wanted to move to a new neighborhood. Despite having substantial equity for a down payment, the higher interest rate and property taxes would've strained their budget. "Affordability should always be your top consideration—no matter how compelling the reasons [are] to move," she says.

Heller and Taylor agree that homeowners should think twice if a move would stretch their budgets too thin. If your home meets your needs and your motivation to move isn't urgent, keeping that low rate might be the wisest decision.

Trading a low mortgage rate for a new home isn't a decision to make lightly. "Start by understanding your finances, including the equity in your current home and your budget for the next purchase," says Heller. Once you know where you stand, meet with several lenders to explore pre-approval options, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), and rate buydowns for potentially below-average mortgage interest rates. From there, a local real estate agent can guide you through current market conditions and available incentives.

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Friday, December 27, 2024

Single-Family & Multifamily Growth in 2024

The U.S. housing market saw significant developments in 2024, with single-family construction leading the way in growth. Over the first nine months of the year, a total of 763,990 single-family permits were issued nationwide, marking a 10.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase from 693,908 permits during the same period in 2023.

Regional Trends in Single-Family Permits

Year-to-date (YTD) ending in September 2024, all four regions of the United States experienced growth in single-family permits. The West saw the largest increase at 15.8%, followed by the Midwest with an 11.8% rise. The Northeast matched the national growth average of 10.1%, while the South saw a 7.8% increase.

Among states, 46 and the District of Columbia reported increases in single-family permits. New Mexico led the pack with a 43.6% surge, while Oregon posted the smallest increase at 0.4%. Four states experienced declines: Maryland (-1.5%), New Hampshire (-1.6%), Alaska (-4.3%), and Hawaii (-7.7%).

Texas continued to dominate in single-family construction, issuing 122,976 permits, a 10.5% increase compared to 2023. Florida and North Carolina followed as the second and third highest states, with Florida seeing a modest 1.7% rise and North Carolina reporting an 8.5% increase. Collectively, the top ten states accounted for 63.1% of all single-family permits nationwide.

Multifamily Permits: A Mixed Picture

The multifamily sector painted a different story, with nationwide permits falling by 16.4% YTD in September 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. A total of 362,543 permits were issued, down from 433,862 the previous year.

While most regions saw declines, the Northeast bucked the trend, posting a robust 30.1% increase, largely driven by activity in New York. The West experienced the steepest drop at 31.7%, followed by the South (-20.7%) and the Midwest (-8.4%).

At the state level, 17 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia reported declines. Rhode Island stood out with a sharp 134.6% increase, rising from 309 to 725 permits. In contrast, the District of Columbia experienced the largest drop, declining by 70.5% from 2,600 to 766 permits.

The ten states issuing the most multifamily permits accounted for 63.2% of the total permits. Texas led with the highest number, but its multifamily permits fell by 27.5%. Florida and California, ranking second and third, saw declines of 27.0% and 33.4%, respectively.

Local Highlights and Metropolitan Data

At the metropolitan level, significant activity was recorded in top markets for both single-family and multifamily permits. Metro areas in Texas and Florida continued to feature prominently for single-family growth, while New York and select markets in the Northeast supported multifamily expansion despite the overall downward trend in this sector.

Implications and Outlook

The divergent trends in single-family and multifamily permits reflect shifting priorities in the U.S. housing market. Single-family construction has rebounded strongly, driven by growing demand and regional variations, while multifamily development faces headwinds due to higher borrowing costs and economic uncertainties.

These trends highlight the need for adaptive strategies in the housing sector, balancing consumer preferences for single-family homes with ongoing demand for affordable and urban housing solutions. As the year progresses, local and state-level housing policies will likely play a pivotal role in shaping the future of both sectors.

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