Home Sale Numbers Nationwide Dip Slightly

New protections by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) kicked in the first of October, but their effects were not felt until November when delayed closings affected home sales numbers nationwide.  The plunge in new home sales was expected because of the delays that the new system incurred coming out the gate.
The new system for closing new home loans and home loans included a drastic overhaul of the traditional HUD (Settlement Statement), and this new document, called the CD (Closing Disclosure) had multiple checks and balances throughout the Good Faith Estimate all the way to closing to ensure that home buyers know what every aspect of their home buying process is about.
Despite the expected slowdown in home sales in November, the National Association of Realtors said that solid gains in real estate have been seen throughout the entire year of 2015.

Another factor contributing to an adjustment in home sales numbers is the fact that home values are increasing a rate that is double that of typical wages.  Year-over-year, home values have increased 6.3% in November to $220,300.  The good news is that wages exist with an improving job market and still historically low interest rates are encouraging buyers and refinancers to get their loans done before there is a significant increase in the interest rate.

Still, builders will have to get busy in 2016 because the real estate market is still showing a gap between availability and inventory for new home buyers.  New home builders can fill this gap with newly constructed homes which will help balance out home prices.
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Record Low Interest Rates to Increase With Fed Decision

Real estate is selling fast and prices are still competitive.  Builders and homeowners alike have taken advantage of the great rates seen after the 2008 economic crunch. These record low interest rates might soon be a thing of the past.  The Federal Reserve has decided it’s now time to rethink the rates because the economy is stronger, and more people are in a position to borrow money.  The Fed already bumped the key interest rate up by 0.25% in December 2015.

Fortunately the Fed plans to raise the rates at a slow, steady pace.  In fact, this is the first rate hike in almost ten years. Even with the slow increase, everyone will be affected. Anyone who has a credit card, savings account, invest in a 401(k), invest in the markets, or wants to make a big purchase with a loan needs to know how the rate increases will affect them.

Just because there has been a raise in the rate does not mean you should rush out and make a big purchase tomorrow.  Owning a new home is a big deal and you should research to find the right one that suits you.  Even if the rates are higher in a year, they still will be lower than historical averages.
“Rates are pretty low and they’re not going to change much in the short term,” says Dean Croushore, a University of Richmond professor and former Fed economist. Do start your research now and pay attention to the Fed’s actions.  If they do start to increase rates out of your comfort zone, it might be time to make that leap into home ownership.

Years ago many remember the advantages of putting their hard-earned cash into a savings account.  It would yield them a little bit of extra cash on top of what they had saved – imagine that!  In the past decade there has been almost zero interest earned.  With the Fed’s rate change, we will also see a higher interest income on your deposits. So a benefit to the rate increase means an increase on the money you put away in your savings account.

Not so smooth sailing for the stock markets. This Fed hike could cause major ups and downs in the stock and bond markets.  This trigger coupled with failing oil prices, China’s continued economic slowdown and decisions made by central banks around the world should be of great concern. According to MSCI Emerging Market Index, the stock market performance was down approximately 20% at the end of 2015.

With the new year comes good news for the U.S. dollar. The increase in the interest rate is predicted to make the dollar stronger. While the dollar is gaining many other global currencies are lowering.  This will have a negative impact on the global economy. U.S. companies will lose money on products sold in other countries.  Investors are already putting all of their money in U.S. investments rather than putting some money into global investments. The U.S. manufacturing sector has already shrunk due to the weak global economy.

All in all it seems to be more good news than bad for those wanting to invest or make big purchases such as a new home. “We’ve come a long way from the depths of the recession, but we’re still not quite back to where we’d like to be,” says Croushore, the former Fed economist.

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Invest in the Real Estate Market

For potential new home buyers, 2016 is the year to invest in the real estate market.  The housing market is still on the rise and there are still great deals to be found on new homes and resale homes. What is making real estate a hot ticket item for 2016?  There are many influences that are contributing factors to this year’s housing market.
Since the economic downturn’s departure, housing prices have been on the rise.  Zillow predicts home prices are going to rise a little slower in 2016.  According to Zillow’s Chief Economist Svenja Gudell prices are anticipated to rise 3.5%. This will give buyers who might not have had a chance in the competitive 2015 market an opportunity to purchase a home.

Jonathan Smoke, with Realtor.com believes this could lead to a succession of home buyers.  He states, “We have the potential for about six million home sales just through the months of April through September; that is basically impossible to do.”

Inventory will increase giving home buyers more options. “Because of the price appreciation they have experienced, you will have more sellers put homes on the market next year,” Smoke said.  Also the new home market will see growth in 2016 because builders are concentrating on the construction of starter and middle-range homes.  This boost in both existing home and new home inventory will make it easier for potential home buyers.  More homes on the market will also contribute to a slower price increase and less bidding wars.

This year we might be kissing cheap mortgages goodbye.  The Federal Reserve is slated to increase interest rates making this one of the last opportunities to benefit from record low mortgage rates.  Home buyers will have to cut back on their new home budget because the borrowing cost and monthly mortgage payments will be higher.

“You are likely to get the best rate you will possibly see, perhaps in your lifetimes through the majority of next year, but certainly, the earlier the better,” said Smoke.

The last influence to affect the 2016 housing market is rent vs. buy.  Renters beware; rent prices will still increase this year making it cheaper to buy a home.  The increase in mortgage rates will still outweigh rental pricing.  According to Ralph McLaughlin with Trulia, “Interest rates would need to rise to around 6.5% for the cost of buying to equal that of renting on a national level.” For those who want to purchase a new starter home, upgrade to a new home or larger home, and for those who want to downsize to a smaller new home, now is the time.

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