Housing Market Demands Still Building Up Builder Confidence Even With Supply Chain Disruptions

 

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released this October shows strong builder confidence. The main reason for this push in builder confidence is the strong consumer demand. According to the report builder's opinion of the market for newly-built single-family homes rose 4 points to 80 this October. This is incredible news since there are still hurdles for builders when it comes to rising material prices and material shortages.

“Although demand and home sales remain strong, builders continue to grapple with ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages that are delaying completion times and putting upward pressure on building material and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke.

“Builders are getting increasingly concerned about affordability hurdles ahead for most buyers,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Building material price increases and bottlenecks persist and interest rates are expected to rise in coming months as the Fed begins to taper its purchase of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed debt. Policymakers must focus on fixing the broken supply chain. This will spur more construction and help ease upward pressure on home prices.”

The three major HMI categories all saw gains in October. Current sales conditions rose five points to 87, sales expectations in the next six months saw a three-point gain to 87, and traffic of prospective buyers rose a big four points to 65. The Midwest rose to 69, Northeast stayed at 72, the South stayed at 80 and the West unchanged at 83.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a monthly survey that measures builders' opinions of the current single-family home sales and expectations for the next six months. A scale is used to rate their opinions as good, fair or poor. Along with this measurement, participating builders are also asked to rate the traffic of prospective buyers. This is scored as high to very high, average and low to very low.

Forecast shows that the end of 2021 will still have a strong housing market with strong buyer demand. If you are in the market to purchase or sell a home now is the time to contact a local sales professional.

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Summer 2021 Saw An Increase in Single-Family Permit Gains

 

According to the National Association of Home Builders, the first 8 months of 2021 reported 775,772 single-family permits issued year-to-date. Compared on a year-over-year basis the end of summer 2021 saw a 25.8% increase over August 2020.

All four regions of the country reported increases. The highest in the Northeast was at 29.3% and the lowest was in the Midwest at 21.6%. The remaining regions were as follows the South at 26.4% and the West at 25.7%. Multifamily was also on the rise with 33.7% in the West, 27.2% in the Northeast, 24.9% in the Midwest and 24.6% in the South.

The same goes for all 50 states and the District of Columbia which reported increases across the country. The highest was in the District of Columbia with an increase of 208% from 87 to 268. The total of the 10 highest states was 62.3%

At the local level, below are the top 10 metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

Metropolitan Statistical Area	Single-family Permits: Aug (Units #YTD, NSA)
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	36,359
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	35,572
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	25.209
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	22,768
Austin-Round Rock, TX	17,375
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	13,603
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	13,174
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	12,068
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN	11,482
Jacksonville, FL	11,400

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Will Home Prices Still Increase in 2022?

Home appreciation has been busy this year. According to many leaders in the industry, home prices have been skyrocketing all year and are still on the rise. Data shows all over the market that the percentages are still rising year-over-year.

The latest percentages of the year-over-year increase in home price appreciation are all-around 18%. The House Price Index (HPI) that is part of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported 18.8%, the S. National Home Price Index from S&P Case-Shiller 18.6% and the Home Price Insights Report from CoreLogic is 18%.

The increases are found across the board at every price point. CoreLogic's HPI sees almost a 19% increase year-over-year in all price points. The low price point saw a 22.1% increase, the low-to-middle saw a 20% increase, the middle-to-moderate saw a 19.9% increase and the high price point saw a 19.1% increase.

The FHFA reported an increase across the country. The highest increase year-over-year in the second quarter in 2021 was in the mountain region is 22.9% and the lowest was seen in West North Central with a 14.9% increase. The remainder includes New England at 20.4%, Pacific at 20.1%, South Atlantic at 17.3%, Middle Atlantic at 17.1%, East South Central at 16.4%, East North Central at 15.7%, West South Central at 15% and West North Central at 14.9%. Overall the United States saw an average of a 17.4% increase.

Prices in 2022 should also increase. The future still sees a low housing inventory with high demands. Home appreciation will still be going on in 2022 but more moderate.

“Given the widespread demand and considering the number of standalone homes built during the past decade, the single-family market is estimated to be undersupplied by 4.35 million units by 2022,” reported CoreLogic.

If you are in the market for a home, contact your local Realtor who can help you along the way. The next year 2022 will hopefully see a great boost in the housing market.

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Several Questions To Ponder Before Buying a Home

Purchasing a home is one of life's biggest and most stressful events. With that said, it is also one of the most exciting events. When it comes to advise, everyone has it and while friends and family have your best interest in mind, to make the best decision, you need to ask yourself these three questions.

1. What's Going on with Home Prices?

Home prices are a big part of the housing market. Home prices directly affect how much it will cost you to buy a home and how much you stand to gain as a homeowner when prices appreciate. Waiting might not be in the best interest of the buyer.

The current market is seeing big home price surges and looks like they will continue. Keeping Current Matters reveals Home Price Forecasts for 2021. This is a good tool to use to predict just what it will cost you to buy a home. Today the average of all forecasts is 12.46%. This means a median-priced home that cost $350,000 in January of 2021 will cost an additional $43,610 by the end of the year. So in a nutshell the longer you wait to purchase a home the more it will cost you.

2. Are Today's Low Mortgage Rates Going To Last?

Due to record-low mortgage rates, today's market is booming. Interest rates also put a big dent in the market. The lower the rate the better the market, the higher the rate the slower the market. Just a slight increase can make a big impact on the overall cost of a home.

3. Why Is Homeownership Important to You?

The answer to this question is not the same for everyone. This is a personal decision and can only be answered by you. Financial benefits are important but emotional benefits are also. According to the 2021 National Homeownership Market Survey, there are nine reasons homeowners value homeownership.

These nine reasons directly affect how you feel about your home. Six of the nine reasons include stability, safety, a sense of accomplishment, a life milestone, a stake in the community, and personal pride. The National Housing & Financial Capability Survey from NeighborWorks America reports that Americans believe owning a home provides a sense of safety and security and an increase in financial stability.

Remember owning a home is a life-changing event and will have a big impact. This is a big decision and all options should be well thought out. Using a trusted Realtor can help you with the decision.

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