Home Pricing Increases Continue Amid Low Inventory

 

Despite the increase in mortgage interest rates, home prices have remained stubbornly high for those real estate buyers who can still afford to purchase a new home for sale. The reason for this is that the market hasn’t recovered from the exceptional interest rates before and during the pandemic. Housing inventory remains low, which prompts bidding wars for available homes for sale. These bidding wars almost artificially inflate home prices, and the result has been a 1.4% increase in home value from April to May, which is the highest it’s been since June of 2022.

Even though this spring’s home buying season has been muted compared to the last two years, home buyers are still in the market to buy new and previously-owned homes in the Greater New Orleans

area. Nationally, the average home value was at $346,856, almost 1% higher than a year ago and 3.4% more than the beginning of 2023.

During a normal real estate market, pricing tends to trend downward beginning in August, but experts are waiting to see what this year’s market brings. The Midwest had the highest monthly price increases, and New Orleans, considered one of the smallest markets, increased by .6%. The trend of abnormally low home inventory continues in 2023 with May showing a 23% drop in listings compared to May, 2022, and this percentage aligns with the same drop of inventory in March of this year of 22%.

In addition to the pandemic surge and buyout of existing land and houses, another factor in the abnormally low inventory has been the high mortgage interest rates. Homeowners don’t want to sell their home, which probably had a fantastic interest rate and buy a home at a significantly higher rate. Also, once they put their home on the market, and it sells, they may not be able to find a new home to move into. Overall, in a 4-year comparison of home inventory, May 2023, inventory is 3.1% less than May of 2022, and 45.7% less than May of 2019.

If you are looking to buy a new home or build a new home, Ron Lee Homes has available lots for sale and ready to build your new home. Consider getting started with your home building process and Contact Us Today!

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December 2020 Saw the Largest Gain in Home Prices in 7 Years

The end of 2020 was chaotic with the pandemic mixed with the holidays. This did not slow down the housing market, especially when it came to increases in home prices. It was reported that home prices rose at the fastest pace we have seen in seven years.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported that nationally home prices rose 10.4% over the data collected in December 2019. Not only were the home prices rising at a record pace, but we saw the largest annual gains in the more than 30-year history of the index in December 2020.

“2020′s 10.4% gain marks the best performance of housing prices in a calendar year since 2013,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “From the perspective of more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, December’s year-over-year change ranks within the top decile of all reports.”

The strongest gains were seen in Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego among the total cities surveyed. Phoenix showed a 14.4% increase year-over-year, Seattle had a 13.6% increase and San Diego was not far behind with a 13% increase.

COVID-19 has driven demand in homes because of the stay-at-home orders. People are more concerned with their homes now more than ever. A lack of inventory and the record low mortgage rates has made the current housing market very strong and desirable.

“These data are consistent with the view that Covid has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This may indicate a secular shift in housing demand, or may simply represent an acceleration of moves that would have taken place over the next several years anyway,” Lazzara said.

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Home Values Will Keep Rising Into 2021

 As with everything supply and demand also impacts the housing economy. In today’s economy, there is still uncertainty because of the pandemic. As we reach the end of 2020, home prices are still on the rise and are predicted to keep on the same path into the new year.

The current housing market is lacking still in inventory. The high demand for housing combined with the

lack of inventory is pushing home prices up. Bidding wars are becoming the norm and homebuyers are willing to pay the hefty price tag in today’s real estate market.

According to housing experts, the new year will continue to see home prices rising due to the continued lack of home inventory on the market. Showtime, which tracks the average number of buyer showings on residential properties, reported that buyer showings are up 61.9% this fall compared to the fall of 2019.

“Since the beginning of the COVID pandemic in March, nearly 400,000 fewer homes have been listed compared to last year, leaving a gaping hole in the U.S. housing inventory,” according to ShowingTime.

If you are in the market to purchase a home, reach out to a Realtor. A Realtor will be able to help you navigate the current face-paced housing market.

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Today’s Selling Power Is Strong For Homeowners

 If you are a homeowner and are thinking about selling your home, now is the time. Homeowner equity is increasing because the average time a

homeowner stays in their home is longer than in the past. According to the 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, the median tenure for sellers was 10 years in 2019. After the recession in 2008, the median tenure in a home started to increase yearly. Now is the time to change the trend and sell with buyer demand high and inventory low.

Over the past 10 years, the equity position of homeowners has positively changed as a result of more than eight years of rising home prices. As the economy climbed out of the recession in the first quarter of 2010, 25.9% or 12.1 million homes were still underwater, compared to the first quarter of 2020 when the negative equity share was at 3.4%, or 1.8 million properties. Borrowers have seen an aggregate increase of $6.2 trillion in home equity since the first quarter of 2010 and the average homeowner has gained about $106,100 in equity,” explains CoreLogic.

To sum it up, the longer a homeowner stays in their home, the home price rises and more equity is gained. This is a form of forced savings that can go towards the purchase of a new home. This increased equity will increase the homeowner’s profit on the sale of their home.

According to the Q2 2020 U.S. Home Sales Report from ATTOM Data Solutions, the second quarter of 2020 saw a gain of $75,971 on a typical sale of a home. This was a huge difference from just the year before in the second quarter which saw $65,250 in a typical sale.

If you are considering selling your home, now is the time to make that move. It is important to determine how much equity you have in your home if you decide to sell. A local Realtor can help you determine your equity, selling your home and purchasing a new home.

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The New Year Starts Off With Mortgage Rates Below Last Year’s Average

A new year has brought good news for the housing industry. The first week reported that the average U.S. fixed rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged at a low 3.72%. The findings were 80 basis points below data reported a week earlier.

George Ratiu, Realtor.com’s chief economist said, “The conventional 30-year loan slid 2 basis points to 3.72% in the first week of 2020. Rates remain about 80 basis points lower than the first week of

2019.”

Ratiu predicts that employment and wage gains will fuel the housing industry. The economy will maintain a moderate growth trajectory this year.

The 15-year FRM also was at a low 3.16% which was down from this time last year’s reportings of 3.99%. The average rate dropped in just one week from 3.19% to 3.16%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage also averaged 3.46% which was lower than the 3.98% reported this time last year.

“As mortgage rates remain favorable, buyers are likely to get a head start on the spring shopping season in the first couple of months of this year,” Ratiu said. “A stronger infusion of new homes in affordable price ranges would be a welcome gift for the New Year.”

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, believes the rates have maintained around 3.7% for the last couple of months because of ” the combination of improved economic data and market sentiment has led to stability in mortgage rates.”

“The low mortgage rate environment combined with the red-hot labor market is setting the stage for a continued rise in home sales and home prices,” said Sam Khater.

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Homeownership is The Way To Go

Rent is rising fast and many are turning back to owning vs. renting. According to the Unites States Census Bureau, in 2016 the decline in homeownership suddenly changed and started to rise. The Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey reflects that homeownership rates rose from 63% in 2016 to 64.6% in 2018. Here are some of the reasons why this reversal has come to fruition.

Millennials had enough with living with mom and dad. In 2017, 22% of adults between the ages of 25 to 34 were living with their parents compared to the 11.6 % of adults between the ages of 25 to 34 that were living with their parents in 2005. This increase was due to the housing crisis, slow earnings

growth, soft labor market and steep student loan debts. As of 2016, Millennials started to be in the position to financially own a home. The homeownership rate for those under 45 began to recover very quickly. This is an important statistic for the housing market because Millennials (those born after 1981) will outnumber baby boomers in the near future.

“Millennials have been on a buying spree the last few years,” Zillow Research economist Aaron Terrazas said.

The groundwork for the turning point hit in 2015 when rental rates rose nationally more than 6% from the previous year. This marked one of the rare times that rent rose faster than home prices.

“Rent appreciation was so high during that period that it essentially put fire under people’s feet to get up and buy,” Terrazas said. “People who may have been sitting on the fence would be incentivized to jump into homeownership,” according to Terrazas.

Rising house prices also led to a quick reaction as Milleanials feared they would be priced out of the market. Terrazas commented that, “driven to homeownership by fears that with homes appreciating so quickly that they would be locked out of buying a home in their desired area.”
Another fear was that interest rates could go up so those who wanted to own a home needed to lock in immediately.

“Maybe people thought ‘interest rates could go up, I should lock in now,’ ” Urban institute housing expert Laurie Goodman said.

Those that were affected by foreclosures during the 2008 recession are ready to buy again. Those that went into foreclosure are now able to obtain a mortgage( it takes seven years for your credit to be cleared of a foreclosure). Buyers who were burned during the housing bubble are no longer gun shy, they are beginning to reenter the housing market.

Overall the unemployment rate is in better shape than it was a decade ago and there are more people out there ready to invest their money.

“When there’s very low unemployment, when there’s been slow but steady wage growth, that tends to make households confident in their ability to make what will probably be their largest investment of their life,” said Ralph McLaughlin an economist at CoreLogic.


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Housing Market Prices Increase With Mixed Results

The housing market has completely rebounded and nationally home prices have risen 49.9% according to CoreLogic. The next challenge that builders have been facing is a labor shortage in the construction market and an increase in materials, especially after this year’s hurricanes and wildfires.  To offset this cost, builders and developers alike have been looking at setting a new trend called densification.  This basically means that because of the scarcity of lots available to build, builders and developers must divide up the lots that they can purchase to put more houses on each lot, thus reducing the overhead cost and property taxes per house that they build.

Home prices have come completely back to the record high that they were in August, 2006, before the housing market crashed.  For this reason, it is lucrative to be in the home building and real estate

industries right now. However, depending upon what market you are in, home prices may have been on a continual increase, or some builders may have seen a volatile up and down trend in their local community’s home prices.

According to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), the following statement was issued.

“The median lot size of a new single-family detached home sold in 2016 stands at 8,562 square feet, or just under one-fifth of an acre. This is a new record low and a small decline since 2015, when the median lot size fell under 8,600 square feet for the first time since Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC) started tracking the series for single-family detached homes.”

By reducing overhead costs, builders and developers will be able to make more profit. Thus, shrinking lot sizes is one answer to reducing these costs.  However, some communities have covenants which require a certain lot size, or pre-engineered plans have delineated the size and scope of the lot and house in new developments, so the trick is to be a crafty business professional and seek out opportunities to rezone lots to a smaller size.

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NSA Index Is Reporting an Increase in Home Prices

The U.S. National Home Price NSA Index is reporting an increase of 4.3% over the peak of the same index in 2006, which was at its highest level right before the housing crash.  Home prices went up in June, 2017 5.8%, which was slightly higher than May’s 5.7% increase.  The index, which is formally called the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, was also up 43.7% above its lowest point in 2012 after the housing market crash.  Home prices have continually risen since the real estate market began its recovery, and they continue to climb. In fact, housing pricing reached another all time high in June.

“The trend of increasing home prices is continuing,” says David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Price increases are supported by a tight housing market. Both the number of homes for sale and the number of days a house is on the market have declined for four to five years. Currently the months-supply of existing homes for sale is low, at 4.2 months. In addition, housing starts remain below their pre-financial crisis peak as new home sales have not recovered as fast as existing home sales.”

According to Blitzer, the housing market now has the “problem” of not having enough supply to meet the demand.  Even with the increase in home pricing, there is a reason that home buyers are still purchasing homes for sale despite the continuous price increases.  Unemployment rates continue to decline, and jobs are being added to the market at an average pace of 200,000 jobs per month.  Mortgage rates have flinched with increases from the Federal Reserve, but they are still holding steady at or below 4%, which is a historically low interest rate for home buying purchases.

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Supply & Demand Drives Home Pricing

One of the key factors to success in any kind of business is supply and demand. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) agrees that this principle has boosted home pricing in the current housing market. NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun believes the housing market is still going strong because of the lack of inventory even though data shows a modest growth rate reduction.
Yun states,”…with homebuilding activity still failing to keep up with demand and not enough current homeowners putting their home up for sale, prices continued their strong ascent – and in many markets at a rate well above income growth.”
In the second quarter of last year the peak existing single-family home price was $229,400, this year however, the second quarter single-family home price has risen 4.9% with a median single-family home price of $240,700.

According to NAR findings, new construction cannot keep up with the demand for new homes.  In the second quarter this year 40% of the listings sold over their listing price. “Many listings in a majority of markets – and especially those in lower price ranges — had multiple offers and went under contract quickly because of severely inadequate supply,” Yun added.

This coupled with low mortgage rates have many potential home buyers wanting to purchase a new home now.  In the Northeast region there was a 7.6% increase in existing homes sales and the median home price increased to $273,600. The Midwest, though not as high of an increase, was 10.4% in total existing-home sales with a median price of $191,300. The West came in next with a 1.4% increase in total existing-home sales with a median home price of $345,500.  The South came in last with a 0.3% increase with a median home price of $214,900.

Whether you are in the market to sell a home or purchase a home, now is the right time.  The housing market is holding strong and is a great investment for your money.  Locally in St. Tammany Parish, Ron Lee Homes, a new home builder in Covington, Louisiana, is building new homes for sale as well as completely custom homes designed completely from your vision of how you would like your new home to be.  We have been keeping a steady pace of new construction for the past 2 years, and we are constantly meeting with new custom home buyers as well as buyers who are looking for homes to buy immediately.  If you are interested in building or buying a new home, Contact Us at 985-626-7619 or E-mail Info@RonLeeHomes.com.


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Home Buyers Seeing Upward Trends in Real Estate

During the first month of the year 2016, home buyers have a lot to be excited about when considering buying a new home for sale.  Home pricing, consumer confidence, and home construction starts and permits are all up!  The housing market has been seeing a steady incline since it bottomed out between 2009 and 2011.  With sharp, record-breaking price increases in 2012 and 2013, the housing market almost seemed to be expanding too fast for consumer demand, consumer affordability, and consumer credit.  However, home pricing trends have “flattened” in 2014 and 2015 creating stability in the real estate market.
During the month of October, 2015, home prices rose at 6% and 11% depending on which report buyers were seeing.  The Case Shiller (CS) National Home Price Index released by S&P Dow Jones Indices showed an 11% increase in October while the more conservative Home Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) rose 6%.  Either way, home pricing has stabilized and is on the upswing which is good for both buyers (a smart investment) and sellers.

Meanwhile, the vote of confidence from consumers showed an increase of approximately 4 points in December after 2 months of declining numbers.  The Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board rose from 92.6 to 96.5 from November to December.  The index shows that consumer confidence is growing back to pre-Recession levels.

Finally, construction housing starts and permits for 2015 were up 10.8% year-over-year to equal to 1.11 million.  Single-family home starts were up 10.4% and multi-family housing starts were up 11.4%.  The single-family home starts numbers came to 715,300.  Increases were seen in all 4 reported regions of the United States for single-family homes.  Housing permits were also up compared to 2014 by 12% with a total of 1.18 million.  Single-family home permits were up by 7.9%, and multi-family home permits were up by 11.4%.  In December, single-family home permit numbers were up by 1.8% compared to November as well.

All signs point to a solidly recovering housing market nationwide, and here in St. Tammany Parish, the custom home business is thriving with many new exciting projects for 2016.  If you are interested in building or buying a new, custom home, Contact Us at 985-626-7619 or E-mail Info@RonLeeHomes.com.

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Record Low Interest Rates to Increase With Fed Decision

Real estate is selling fast and prices are still competitive.  Builders and homeowners alike have taken advantage of the great rates seen after the 2008 economic crunch. These record low interest rates might soon be a thing of the past.  The Federal Reserve has decided it’s now time to rethink the rates because the economy is stronger, and more people are in a position to borrow money.  The Fed already bumped the key interest rate up by 0.25% in December 2015.

Fortunately the Fed plans to raise the rates at a slow, steady pace.  In fact, this is the first rate hike in almost ten years. Even with the slow increase, everyone will be affected. Anyone who has a credit card, savings account, invest in a 401(k), invest in the markets, or wants to make a big purchase with a loan needs to know how the rate increases will affect them.

Just because there has been a raise in the rate does not mean you should rush out and make a big purchase tomorrow.  Owning a new home is a big deal and you should research to find the right one that suits you.  Even if the rates are higher in a year, they still will be lower than historical averages.
“Rates are pretty low and they’re not going to change much in the short term,” says Dean Croushore, a University of Richmond professor and former Fed economist. Do start your research now and pay attention to the Fed’s actions.  If they do start to increase rates out of your comfort zone, it might be time to make that leap into home ownership.

Years ago many remember the advantages of putting their hard-earned cash into a savings account.  It would yield them a little bit of extra cash on top of what they had saved – imagine that!  In the past decade there has been almost zero interest earned.  With the Fed’s rate change, we will also see a higher interest income on your deposits. So a benefit to the rate increase means an increase on the money you put away in your savings account.

Not so smooth sailing for the stock markets. This Fed hike could cause major ups and downs in the stock and bond markets.  This trigger coupled with failing oil prices, China’s continued economic slowdown and decisions made by central banks around the world should be of great concern. According to MSCI Emerging Market Index, the stock market performance was down approximately 20% at the end of 2015.

With the new year comes good news for the U.S. dollar. The increase in the interest rate is predicted to make the dollar stronger. While the dollar is gaining many other global currencies are lowering.  This will have a negative impact on the global economy. U.S. companies will lose money on products sold in other countries.  Investors are already putting all of their money in U.S. investments rather than putting some money into global investments. The U.S. manufacturing sector has already shrunk due to the weak global economy.

All in all it seems to be more good news than bad for those wanting to invest or make big purchases such as a new home. “We’ve come a long way from the depths of the recession, but we’re still not quite back to where we’d like to be,” says Croushore, the former Fed economist.

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Invest in the Real Estate Market

For potential new home buyers, 2016 is the year to invest in the real estate market.  The housing market is still on the rise and there are still great deals to be found on new homes and resale homes. What is making real estate a hot ticket item for 2016?  There are many influences that are contributing factors to this year’s housing market.
Since the economic downturn’s departure, housing prices have been on the rise.  Zillow predicts home prices are going to rise a little slower in 2016.  According to Zillow’s Chief Economist Svenja Gudell prices are anticipated to rise 3.5%. This will give buyers who might not have had a chance in the competitive 2015 market an opportunity to purchase a home.

Jonathan Smoke, with Realtor.com believes this could lead to a succession of home buyers.  He states, “We have the potential for about six million home sales just through the months of April through September; that is basically impossible to do.”

Inventory will increase giving home buyers more options. “Because of the price appreciation they have experienced, you will have more sellers put homes on the market next year,” Smoke said.  Also the new home market will see growth in 2016 because builders are concentrating on the construction of starter and middle-range homes.  This boost in both existing home and new home inventory will make it easier for potential home buyers.  More homes on the market will also contribute to a slower price increase and less bidding wars.

This year we might be kissing cheap mortgages goodbye.  The Federal Reserve is slated to increase interest rates making this one of the last opportunities to benefit from record low mortgage rates.  Home buyers will have to cut back on their new home budget because the borrowing cost and monthly mortgage payments will be higher.

“You are likely to get the best rate you will possibly see, perhaps in your lifetimes through the majority of next year, but certainly, the earlier the better,” said Smoke.

The last influence to affect the 2016 housing market is rent vs. buy.  Renters beware; rent prices will still increase this year making it cheaper to buy a home.  The increase in mortgage rates will still outweigh rental pricing.  According to Ralph McLaughlin with Trulia, “Interest rates would need to rise to around 6.5% for the cost of buying to equal that of renting on a national level.” For those who want to purchase a new starter home, upgrade to a new home or larger home, and for those who want to downsize to a smaller new home, now is the time.

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Conventional Mortgages for New Homes Increase for the 5th Month in a Row

When the bottom dropped out of the real estate market, the biggest indicator that the economy was in trouble was that home owners and new home buyers found themselves paying more for their home than what it was worth.  One of the biggest indicators that the housing economy has been in recovery has been the increase in house pricing regionally nationwide.  These home prices went up steadily during the end of 2013 and 2014, so much so, that investors were concerned that they would cause a housing bubble and throw the entire economy back into a Recession.  Once again, though, supply and demand allowed for free market commerce to dictate the real estate market, and prices started to stabilize in the 1st quarter of 2015.

For the 5th month in a row, conventional mortgages for new homes have increased to an all-time high of $352,500 in June, and this is also a record for the average loan amount which has not yet so far been above $350,000 after the Recession.  In addition to the average amount of a loan going up, home prices also increased in June to $462,100 from $447,600 which is a 3% increase.  Also a record-breaking statistic, this is the first time that new home prices have been above $460,000 since the Recession as well.

Even though the average initial fees and charges on loans decreased by 3 basis points to 1.08%, the effetive interest rate on conventional mortgages went up to 3.98%.  Home buyers and people interested in refinancing their homes have been “spoiled” with the phenomenally low interest rates over the past 5 years, but an average overall interest rate in the 4% range is still a historically low rate and will probably not be seen again for quite some time.  The Fed was set to increase interest rates in September, but this is not a guaranteed move and has been in limbo for over a year.  Interest rates are still low, credit is easing allowing higher borrowing amounts for conventional mortgages, and Ron Lee Homes is building new, custom homes in St. Tammany Parish for interested home buyers.  Contact Us today to help you start building the home of your dreams.  Call 985-626-7619 or e-mail Info@RonLeeHomes.com.

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