A Boost in Fed Rates Could Cause a Drop in Mortgage Rates in the Near Future

The beginning of February saw a raise of a key short-term interest rate to help bring down the inflation. The one-quarter of a percentage point, from 4.5% to 4.75%, will hopefully lower the interest rates in the long term. Many professionals in the industry already considered the raise in the rates in January even though the rates fell this January from December’s 6.38% to January’s 6.29%.

The inflation rate can influence mortgage rates so when the inflation rate is falling so will the mortgage rate. The consumer price index that was reported in December showed that overall prices increased 6.5% over the previous 12 months. This shows that the Fed definitely has an upper hand on the mortgage rates.

The Fed’s monetary policy committee will meet eight times a year and the last time they met last year all eight meetings saw an increase. During the summer and fall of 2022 there were four increases from the central bank and each increase was 0.75 percentage points.

“The Federal Reserve will continue to increase short-term rates to fight inflation, and will ultimately be successful, but it will be early 2024 before inflation reaches their 2% target,” says Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

If you are in the market for a HELOC, home equity lines of credit, these will go up. The quarter-point raise will cause the spike. It will be more expensive for a homeowner to borrow or repay the funds drawn. If you have a balance of $50,000, the monthly interest rate will rise by $10.42.

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Last Three Months of 2021 Saw Growth for U.S. Builders

 

December 2021 date shows that the construction of new homes climbed for the third consecutive month. Reports find that new construction homes are at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7 million units. Close to 1.6 million housing units were started at a 15.6% increase over 2020.

Even with the rising interest rates, the housing market is still going strong. The average long-term U.S. mortgage rates rose to the highest levels since March 2020 in January 2022. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says economists expect to see an increase in mortgage rates this year. This is due to the Federal Reserve slowing down on purchasing monthly bonds.

Applications for building permits rose 9.1% to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.87 million units. This is the strongest month for permits since the beginning of the year in January 2021. Applications for building permits can forecast future building activity. Housing starts in the Northeast and the Midwest rose the most at 20% and 36%.

The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo monthly survey, which gauges builder sentiment, reported that it still remained stable. This is good news since builder sentiment was down slightly to 83 at the beginning of 2022.

“Demand exceeds supply, and builders are working as hard as they can to catch up, a process that was always going to be measured in years, not months, after the massive shift in demand toward single-family homes sparked by the pandemic,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Amherst Pierpont.

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Rates Stay Near Zero Due to Fragile Recovery

 The Fed has determined that rates will stay close to zero for several years to come due to the long recovery ahead from the pandemic. The key short-term rate was close to zero after the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting last Wednesday.

American consumers and businesses are struggling because of COVID-19 and will continue to struggle if Congress, the White House and the Fed do not do more to help stimulate the country’s economy.

The Federal Reserve has already slashed the interest rates and started many lending programs as well as other stimulus efforts to support the national economy. It will continue to buy Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

“Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year,” the Fed said in its statement.

The Fed believes that the course of the virus can determine the path the economy will take. There is hope from the American people with the COVID-19 vaccines becoming available. People will begin to go back to normal spending habits and activities.

The country’s gross domestic product is anticipated to a 4.2% rebound next year. The Federal Reserve also predicts the unemployment rate will go back down to 5% in the year 2021.

“With vaccines on the horizon, the Fed’s economic projections for the next few years all got an upgrade, but don’t gloss over the immediate challenges still confronting the economy,” said Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride in a report after the Fed announcement.

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Mortgage Rates to Stay Near Historical Lows in May

The Federal Reserve has stepped up to ensure the rates stay near historical lows. During the policy meeting held on April 29th, the central bank said they would keep buying mortgage-backed securities to allow credit to keep flowing.

Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, says the Fed will keep purchasing the mortgage-backed securities for “the next year or so” with the unknown economic consequences from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed said in its most recent announcement that it foresees “considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.”

The Fed has brought a lot of money to the table when it comes to mortgage-backed securities. In a comment, the Federal Reserve relayed this was necessary “to support smooth market functioning.” Before the Fed stepped in, mortgage rates fell during late February but took a turn up in March because of the market turmoil.

The Federal Reserve has purchased more than half a trillion dollars’ worth of mortgage-backed securities since the middle of March. According to the Fed purchasing these mortgage-backed securities has given lenders the confidence that there will be enough money to keep funding mortgages to consumers. The mortgage rates will stay stable because the Federal Reserve is standing in as a reliable buyer.

Luckily there strategy is working. Currently, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 3.389%, a 15-year fixed-rate is at an average of 2.923% and the average for the 5/1 ARM is down to 3.117%. During Nerdwallet’s survey of mortgage rates, they found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 88 basis points lower than this time last year.

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Elements That Affect Mortgage Rates

There are many factors that influence mortgage rates such as inflation, economic growth and most importantly the Federal Reserve. When determining mortgage rates, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is taken into consideration.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The Federal Reserve itself is the central banking system of the United States of America. The goal of the Fed is to boost job growth while controlling the amount of inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee

(FOMC) has a certain way of maintaining its goal through monetary policy. This is done through the federal fund rates. The federal fund rates are “interest rate that banks charge one another for short-term loans.” These federal fund rates help shape mortgage rates along with other long-term loans.

Neither the mortgage rates or the fed rates follow each other necessarily. Most of the time, the federal funds rate and mortgage rates tend to go the same direction. There are times in history when the Fed has  lead the market and other times the mortgage market has lead.

The FOMC meets eight times a year to work on any necessary changes that might need to be made to the monetary policy. If they make a change, FOMC will let investors know the result of their decision before making the change. This way there will be a consensus derived from the investor’s opinion on the FOMC’s decision. The consensus, for the most part, agrees with the Fed’s decision whether to cut rates, raise them or keep them the same.

Currently, the federal funds rate has been reduced to a range of 0% to 0.25% as of March 15, 2020.

The central bank plans to keep the federal funds rate close to zero for the time being. They also will conduct a round of quantitative easing which is a form of economic stimulus the central bank has used in the past.

The quantitative easing planned is for the Feds to purchase around $500 billion of Treasurys and approximately $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The Fed hopes this will “add cash to the mortgage banking system to reassure lenders that it’s safe to lend because the Fed is willing to buy the resulting mortgage-backed securities.”

Federal funds rate will not only influence the mortgage rates in the housing market but will also influence the home equity lines of credit (HELOC). The HELOc rates are usually adjustable rates and are based off the Wall Street Journal’s prime rate. In a nutshell, when the Fed cuts the federal funds rate, the interest rate on HELOcs will also go down.


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Fed Supports A Smooth Market

The Federal Reserve will address the strains in the market for Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities. The Fed wants to ensure a positive flow of credit to residents and businesses throughout the country.

During their announcement, they revealed they would “purchase at least $500 billion of Treasury securities and at least $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities.” The Feds also proposed an

establishment of a Main Street Business Lending Program that will support lending to qualifying small and medium-sized businesses.

“The Fed’s action represents an open-ended and unlimited expansion of quantitative easing to control interest rates,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The central bank’s role of lender of last resort has been expanded to be buyer of last resort in order to support liquidity and the operation of financial markets. The Fed clearly intends to use its full powers to support the economy during an extremely disruptive phase.”

During this time, the central bank will take many steps to see this plan to fruition. They will establish new programs that will support the flow of credit to consumers, employers and businesses in the US. They will provide $300 billion in new financing and the Department of the Treasury will use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to provide $30 billion.

There will be three facilities in total. They will create the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) which will support new bond and loan issuance. The Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) will supply liquidity for outstanding corporate bonds. The third will be called the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) which will support the flow of credit to consumers and businesses. This third facility will issue ABS (asset-backed securities) that are supported by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans, SBA (Small Business Administration and other established assets.

“The Federal Reserve is committed to use its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals,” as stated in a press statement on the Federal Reserve website.

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Interest Rates Hold Steady For 2020

To aid in the country’s economic expansion, the Federal Reserve announced they are holding interest rates between 1.5% and 1.75% at the December meeting. There will be no more rate cuts but this is a positive, shifting the fears that there will be a recession.

With the nation’s economic expansion in its 11th year, the Fed will watch closely to the U.S.Federal Open Market Committee’s policy-setting body, thirteen agreed with keeping the rates steady going into the new year. Only four on the committee feels that rates should be increased.

economy. Of the seventeen participants on the

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also in agreement with keeping interest rates level. According to Powell, “the Fed can hold rates steady, because historically unemployment has been able to remain at very low levels for an extended period of time without having an effect on inflation.”

The Commerce Department announced in the meeting that consumer prices are up by 2.1% over 2019 but overall  inflation has remained below the Fed’s 2% target range. Powell comments that the monetary policy is in a “good place”. The Fed’s predict the US economy will grow at 2.2% and slow to 2% the next year.

Although the global economic growth is sluggish and there is uncertainty with global trade, the US economy is a “star performer” says Powell. This is thanks to the nation’s strong consumer spending and steady job growth.

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An Economic Balancing Act

After the fall of the economy in 2007, policymakers want to keep a healthy balance in today’s economy. The Federal Reserve does not want to repeat what some economist consider to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

According to a statement released by the Federal Reserve, the labor market is continuing to strengthen and the “economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.”

This week Fed policymakers agreed to keep the rates the same for November 2018.  The reason for

this decision was based on the continued growth of the American economy.  The Federal Reserve wants to make sure the growth stays at a healthy rate, neither too fast nor too slow. The benchmark rate, the determining factor for the cost of borrowing on credit cards, mortgages and other loans, will stay between 2% to 2.25%

Markets have gone up this month and the Fed will more than likely raise rates at the final 2018 meeting. This also suggest the rates will raise several more times in 2019. Policymakers explain that this is a standard reaction to the strong economy.  This will give central bankers some cushion if a downturn were to occur.

Not all of the aspects of the economy are at full force. Business investments have risen very little and the investors are curious to see if the Fed officials will anticipate a lower growth in next year’s forecast.

The job market is strong. In October, employers added 250,000 jobs.  Wages have also gone up 3.1% year-over-year. While this is good news for Americans, officials fear that low unemployment and higher wages might speed up inflation which could force the central bank to raise rates aggressively.

Interest Rate Increase Expected in December

Interest rates have been driving the housing recovery, as well as the economic recovery in the United States since the housing market dropped out in 2008.  The Fed has kept interest rates at zero for approximately 8 years which has been attractive for both home buyers, new home buyers, and people looking to refinance their mortgages.

As the U.S. economy has recovered at a very gradual, yet very steady pace, the Federal Reserve,

called The Fed, has, within the last year, started to gradually increase the interest rates, once in December, 2016, again in March and then in June, 2017.  During the last meeting of The Fed, October 31st and November 1st, during a two-day meeting in Washington, kept the interest rate the same.  This could be  because a new pick for The Fed chair was expected on Thursday. Rates have stayed within the 1% and 1.25% range, with a rate increase expected in December.

New picks for the chair for the Federal Reserve include the current chair, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell, a Fed governor and John Taylor, an economist at Stanford University.

The economy is said to be strong enough to handle another rate increase, especially with the job growth and recovery due to the hurricanes in both Texas and Florida and the wildfires, which have increase restoration construction in California.  In addition, the United States unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since 2001 at 4.2%, and the job growth has increased for the last 83 out of 84 months.

The December increase in the interest rate will not cause a huge disruption in the home building industry as, even with the rate hikes, mortgage rates are still at historic lows.  However, the refinance market has slowed down a great deal once rates rose above 4%.

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Interest Rates to Remain the Same According to the Fed

A unanimous decision by the Federal Reserve the first week of June declared that interest rates would remain the way they were. This decision was made after reports revealed that the labor market is still not showing a strong recovery.  Even though there are still job gains across the board, they are slow and business investment has also not picked up.
Home buyers have enjoyed and even taken for granted interest rates that are historically low for the past 10+ years.  For those buyers who have been able to recover and succeed after the Great Recession, it is still one of the best times to buy a new home or buy an existing home in today’s housing market.

Predicted Rise in Interest Rate

Originally, the “Fed” had predicted that there would be two more rate hikes of the interest rate during 2016, but June’s meeting saw 6 members stating that with the slow growth of the economy, they only would really commit to a possibility of one more interest rate increase, citing the normalization of monetary policy taking a longer period of time than expected.
The good news is that the unemployment rate went down by 4.7%, but the gain of jobs in May, 2016, was only 38,000.  Also, the job increases reported in March and April were revised down by 59,000 – a loss of 458,000 in the labor force.

Strong demand still exists for employees and contractors in the residential construction sector.  The BLS JOLTS data shows that builders have approximately 200,000 unfilled positions.  However, during the course of April and May, 9,600 jobs were lost in the residential construction industry, and these jobs are now having to be refilled.

First-Time Home Buyers

Because of the cost of labor and materials to build a new home, first-time home buyers are finding it hard to acquire a new home.  Homes that are priced less than $150,000 account for only 6% of the market according to the National Association of Home Builders.  Currently approximately 31% of the home buyers surveyed expected to be able to pay less than $150,000 for their new home.

New home buyers in the market to purchase a new home will still benefit greatly from the significantly and historically low interest rates.  Any rise in the interest rate in 2016 will still probably keep the interest rate low enough to have affordable house payments.

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