June 2023 Sees a Positive Move When It Comes to Builder Confidence

 For the first time in the past year or so, builder confidence has moved into the positive range. The confidence booster is due to the heavy buyer demand, low home inventory and the increase in productivity in the supply chain. The National Association of Home Builders had a lot of great data to share about the housing market.

As of June 2023, builders’ confidence in newly-built single-family homes rose to fifty-five points. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) this is the sixth straight month that there has been an increase in builder confidence.

“Builders are feeling cautiously optimistic about market conditions given low levels of existing home inventory and ongoing gradual improvements for supply chains,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “However, access for builder and developer loans has become more difficult to obtain over the last year, which will ultimately result in lower lot supplies as the industry tries to expand off cycle lows.”

“A bottom is forming for single-family home building as builder sentiment continues to gradually rise from the beginning of the year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “This month marks the first time in a year that both the current and future sales components of the HMI have exceeded 60, as some buyers adjust to a new normal in terms of interest rates. The Federal Reserve nearing the end of its tightening cycle is also good news for future market conditions in terms of mortgage rates and the cost of financing for builder and developer loans.”

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The Housing Market Today

 At the end of 2022, the housing market was still weakening due to buyers not being able to afford home prices due to the spike in home prices coupled with the rising mortgage interest rates. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz reported that at the beginning of 2023, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down from November 2022 to 6.5% from 7.1%.

NAHB believes that around 18 million households have been priced out of the current market. The decline in affordability is clearly reflected in current housing sales statistics: The volume of existing home sales in November 2022 was 35% lower than in November 2021. The Census data shows that new home sales were down 15% on a year-to-date basis.

Along with the pricing and interest rate comes low inventory. More construction is needed over a long-term period. According to the National Association of Home Builders, their new study reports that the current housing market is underbuilt by 1.5 million homes. Single-family builder sentiment, which is measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), has been falling every month since December 2021. Unfortunately, this has been the lowest reading they have seen since 2012 and close to 62% of builders are offering some form of sales incentives to entice home buyers.

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Last Three Months of 2021 Saw Growth for U.S. Builders

 

December 2021 date shows that the construction of new homes climbed for the third consecutive month. Reports find that new construction homes are at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7 million units. Close to 1.6 million housing units were started at a 15.6% increase over 2020.

Even with the rising interest rates, the housing market is still going strong. The average long-term U.S. mortgage rates rose to the highest levels since March 2020 in January 2022. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says economists expect to see an increase in mortgage rates this year. This is due to the Federal Reserve slowing down on purchasing monthly bonds.

Applications for building permits rose 9.1% to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.87 million units. This is the strongest month for permits since the beginning of the year in January 2021. Applications for building permits can forecast future building activity. Housing starts in the Northeast and the Midwest rose the most at 20% and 36%.

The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo monthly survey, which gauges builder sentiment, reported that it still remained stable. This is good news since builder sentiment was down slightly to 83 at the beginning of 2022.

“Demand exceeds supply, and builders are working as hard as they can to catch up, a process that was always going to be measured in years, not months, after the massive shift in demand toward single-family homes sparked by the pandemic,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Amherst Pierpont.

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Housing Market Demands Still Building Up Builder Confidence Even With Supply Chain Disruptions

 

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released this October shows strong builder confidence. The main reason for this push in builder confidence is the strong consumer demand. According to the report builder's opinion of the market for newly-built single-family homes rose 4 points to 80 this October. This is incredible news since there are still hurdles for builders when it comes to rising material prices and material shortages.

“Although demand and home sales remain strong, builders continue to grapple with ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages that are delaying completion times and putting upward pressure on building material and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke.

“Builders are getting increasingly concerned about affordability hurdles ahead for most buyers,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Building material price increases and bottlenecks persist and interest rates are expected to rise in coming months as the Fed begins to taper its purchase of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed debt. Policymakers must focus on fixing the broken supply chain. This will spur more construction and help ease upward pressure on home prices.”

The three major HMI categories all saw gains in October. Current sales conditions rose five points to 87, sales expectations in the next six months saw a three-point gain to 87, and traffic of prospective buyers rose a big four points to 65. The Midwest rose to 69, Northeast stayed at 72, the South stayed at 80 and the West unchanged at 83.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a monthly survey that measures builders' opinions of the current single-family home sales and expectations for the next six months. A scale is used to rate their opinions as good, fair or poor. Along with this measurement, participating builders are also asked to rate the traffic of prospective buyers. This is scored as high to very high, average and low to very low.

Forecast shows that the end of 2021 will still have a strong housing market with strong buyer demand. If you are in the market to purchase or sell a home now is the time to contact a local sales professional.

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STRONG BUYER DEMAND BUILDS UP BUILDER CONFIDENCE

 

The latest National Home Builders Association/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reported that builder confidence increased in April 2021. For newly-built single-family homes, builder confidence was at an 83 in April.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI surveys builders’ views on how the current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months. The builder's rate as good, fair or poor. When asked about the traffic seen of prospective buyers, they rate it as high to very high, average or low to very low. Once the data is collected,  scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Today’s market is seeing an 88 for current sales conditions even with the high lumber prices and supply chain problems. For the traffic of prospective buyers, there was a three-point gain to 75. As for the different regions the Northeast was at 86 points, the South at 83 points, the West at 90 points and the Midwest came in at 78 points.

“Despite strong buyer traffic, builders continue to face challenges to add much-needed housing supply to the market,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “The supply chain for residential construction is tight, particularly regarding the cost and availability of lumber, appliances, and other building materials. Though builders are seeking to keep home prices affordable in a market in need of more inventory, policymakers must find ways to increase the supply of building materials as the economy runs hot in 2021.”

“While mortgage interest rates have trended higher since February and home prices continue to outstrip inflation, housing demand appears to be unwavering for now as buyer traffic reached its highest level since November,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “NAHB’s forecast is for ongoing growth in single-family construction in 2021, albeit at a lower growth rate than realized in 2020.”

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